Why MDCAT Merit Keeps Going Up: A 2026 Analysis of Pakistan's Closing Cutoffs
Premeth Team
Meth Experts
MDCAT closing merit at top Pakistani medical colleges has climbed roughly 3.5 percentage points over five cycles (2021→2025). The drivers are real and structural — not random — and almost certainly continue into 2026. KEMU closed at 95.6% in 2025; aim for a 92%+ aggregate to be safe at any top-five public college.
- KEMU closing 2021→2025 — 92.1% → 95.6%
- AIMC closing 2021→2025 — 91.5% → 95.6%
- NMC Multan 2021→2025 — 90.0% → 93.7%
- MDCAT applicants 2024 vs 2020 — ~180k vs ~120k (+50%)
Sources: UHS admission portal 2021–2025; PMDC applicant statistics; r/MDCAT_NUMS “insanely high merit” thread.
A r/MDCAT_NUMS thread last cycle captured the anxiety: “mdcat current situation: insanely high merit.” The discussion ran on for 41 comments. The honest answer to whether merit really is rising: yes, measurably, and the trend is structural.
The Hard Numbers (Public Medical Colleges, Open Merit)
| College | 2021 | 2023 | 2025 | 5-yr Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KEMU Lahore | 92.1% | 94.3% | 95.6% | +3.5 |
| AIMC Lahore | 91.5% | 93.9% | 95.6% | +4.1 |
| NMC Multan | 90.0% | 92.4% | 93.7% | +3.7 |
| RMU Rawalpindi | 90.5% | 92.8% | 94.0% | +3.5 |
| DUHS Karachi | 88.6% | 91.2% | 92.8% | +4.2 |
| KMC Khyber | 87.9% | 90.1% | 91.6% | +3.7 |
Four Structural Drivers
1. Application volume up ~50% in 5 years
PMDC MDCAT applications rose from ~120,000 in 2020 to ~180,000 in 2024. Seats grew far less (roughly 11,000 MBBS + 1,200 BDS public sector). More candidates competing for the same seats mathematically raises the cutoff.
2. FSc grade inflation across boards
Provincial boards have steadily issued more 85%+ FSc transcripts each year. UHS's internal review (2024) found a ~6% increase in transcripts above 90% across major boards since 2019. Higher FSc inputs feed directly into the 40% FSc weighting in the aggregate formula.
3. Improved MDCAT prep infrastructure
Free online resources (Premeth, YouTube, Khan Academy adaptations), better academy materials, and a more standardised PMDC syllabus mean the median MDCAT raw score has risen by 7–9 marks since 2020.
4. Repeaters with higher FSc
Roughly 42% of MDCAT applicants in 2024 were repeaters (UHS). Repeaters average 6–8 marks better than first-time attempters, and their FSc transcripts are often improved via supplementary exams. This compounds upward pressure on top-end merit.
2026 Cutoff Projections
Extrapolating the 2021–2025 trend (assuming PMDC's 2026 rule changes do not dramatically shift the field):
- KEMU / AIMC — expect 95.8–96.2% closing merit
- NMC / RMU — expect 94.0–94.3%
- DUHS / KMC — expect 93.0–93.5%
- Tier-2 publics (Sialkot, Faisalabad, Gujranwala) — expect 88–90%
Two wild cards for 2026: the new 65% FSc minimum (which removes ~20,000 weaker candidates from the pool, potentially raising top-end merit further) and the foreign-MBBS MDCAT rule (which may drain some top FSc candidates toward overseas options). Net effect: still upward pressure.
What You Should Aim For
- Top-five public dream (KEMU/AIMC/NMC/RMU/DUHS) — target 96%+ aggregate. Requires FSc 90%+ AND MDCAT 165+/180.
- Any public medical college — target 90%+ aggregate. FSc 80%+ AND MDCAT 150+/180.
- Mid-tier private — 82%+ aggregate sufficient for most.
- Backup tier private + BDS — 75%+ aggregate.
FAQ
Q: Will merit ever come down?
Unlikely in the short term. Application volume continues to grow and FSc inflation is structural. The only way merit drops is if PMDC opens significantly more public seats — not currently planned.
Q: Does the new 52% passing minimum lower merit?
No — that only affects which candidates qualify for application. Merit is set by the aggregate-ranking among qualified candidates, which is still concentrated at the top end. See our passing-marks analysis.
Q: I scored 88% — do I have any public chance?
Tier-3 publics in Sindh and Balochistan rural quotas occasionally close at 88–90%. Otherwise, plan for private + apply broadly.
Q: Reserved seat quotas — do they still help?
Yes, FATA/AJK/GB and disability quotas continue to close 4–6 percentage points lower than open merit at most colleges.
Plan against the merit you will face, not the merit you wish existed. Use the aggregate calculator to model your realistic position, and review last year's full closing-merit list.
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